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Weather wolf creek ski area9/17/2023 I don’t have good news for those of you with outdoor events to attend today and Saturday. I will be watching every one of them! Radar Update This is the year, I do see an increased chance for a recurring Tropical Storm. At this point, the fate of this potential storm is not-forecastable. The Eastern Pacific is primed for development with temperatures in mid to upper 80s. The longer this extended period lasts the better the chances of some of our first fire weather advisories being issued. In other words a typical June and beginning of summer. It still looks like on Sunday it will start drying out and we will begin an extended period of dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures. I do not expect that, but the models have struggled with the placement and track of precipitation for the last couple of months. If the line of precipitation decides it does not care what the models think, it could track from SW to NE and miss the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. The best chance of this happening will once again be in the higher elevation areas, but I would not rule out a shower elsewhere. It looks like showers could dissipate after the initial line moves through, then there is a chance that by midday, showers could redevelop with the residual moisture and daytime heating. The models are still indicating that this precipitation will move east as the morning wears on. You’ll remember yesterday I mentioned models were showing showers starting early and being more widespread throughout the morning. It currently extends from Cortez to Telluride to Montrose. A line of showers has developed in the western portions of the forecast area. Most of the precipitation fell in the higher elevation areas across northern portions of the forecast area. Yesterday, the models performed poorly in the lower and mid-elevations. This is great news for all of us in SW Colorado. Over time, enough data will be collected to improve longer and mid-term model accuracy. In the summer it will be very helpful with severe weather tracking. This will really help with storm tracking and short-term forecasting. And, as long as the weather does not become an issue this fall, the vendor expects to radar to be operational this year, perhaps in late November! The construction is not very complex, and this type of job is what the vendor does, they just finished an installation in Florida.Īs long as construction can stay on track, and the sub-contractors stay in place. For the first time in the process, we finally have a target date. The sub-contractors are in place and construction is set to begin very soon. The vendor has been hired for construction and installation. It will be located NW of the cellphone parking lot.Īll of the administrative hurdles are over. It will be at the La Plata County Airport (DRO). They reached out to give me an official update on our new radar installation. I was pleased to hear from officials from La Plata County yesterday. Many of you have already seen this, but I wanted a stand-alone post so that I can refer people to it in the future. Depending on what I see on the Euro extended outlook, I may post on Tuesday. There is not going to be a lot to talk about in the coming days, but I will be looking for topics. Here are a few screen shots from the webcams Saturday morning. Yesterday should be the last day of high-elevation snow until next fall. I am afraid this dry, warm, windy pattern is here for a while. This may create critical fire conditions and even wind advisories as the week progresses. Drier air moved in, and it will continue to get even drier beginning on Monday, and of course, everyone’s favorite, the wind will ramp up. Showers were isolated the rest of the day except for far eastern portions of the forecast area. Yesterday showers developed as expected mainly in the morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site! Click here to donate If you prefer to donate with Venmo: Click here to submit a weather report or question So, there is light at the end of the tunnel, it’s just a really, really long tunnel. The European extended model shows a similar pattern change but not until after July 20th. The Canadian and US extended models show us flipping to an anomalously wet pattern around or just after the 15th of July. The majority of the forecast area is less than that with between 0 and 0.12 inches.įortunately, I can fall back on the long-term extended models. They show 0-0.21 inches of total precipitation across the forecast area over the next 15 days. The wettest totals come from the Canadian ensembles. The 15-day ensemble models, which show the average precipitation totals from multiple versions of each model family show virtually no precipitation over the next 15 days. Oooosh-ka…This pattern is locked and loaded.
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